ODU analysis: A Category 3 hurricane could cause $15.6B in damage to Hampton Roads
NORFOLK, Va. (WAVY) — If a Category 3 hurricane with a storm surge of 3.5 feet made a direct hit on Hampton Roads, it could cause up to $15.6 billion in damage to the area, according to a new paper from Old Dominion University that modeled just that scenario and how it would impact the economy.
Their analysis used computer modeling to predict the impact of a storm like Florence, which made landfall near Wilmington, N.C., with storm surges of 3.6 feet and 6.6 feet, respectively. At the lower level, they estimate $11.2 billion in flooding related damage. At 6.6 feet, that number jumps to $33.2 billion.
“A 6.6 [foot] tidal offset would result in total damages equivalent to 32.3% of 2022 regional GDP (gross domestic product),” the paper’s abstract reads. “If we apply existing flood insurance rates to these projected damages, we estimate that the total economic impact would exceed $12 billion, with a short-term loss of more than 76,000 jobs.”
The wind damage from such a storm, independent of flooding, the report estimates to cause $4.4 billion in destruction.
Last modified: November 13, 2025
